Des Moines, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

588
FXUS63 KDMX 131743
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1143 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

 ...Updated for the 18z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild today with mostly dry conditions; breezy

- Cooldown tonight into Wednesday, with breezy conditions

- Snow possible at times Thursday thru Saturday, paired with
  breezy conditions. Highest chance Thursday night. Cold air
  settles for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mild conditions to start the day this morning as southwesterly flow
under partly to mostly clear skies is keeping temperatures in the
mid 30s to low 40s across Iowa. This is thanks to the thermal ridge
remaining across the western half of the CONUS today, leading to
continued warm air advection into the region. There is however a mid-
level trough sliding down the ridge, with its attendant surface low
pressure centered just north of Minnesota early this morning. This
feature is trying to generate precipitation into Minnesota and
Wisconsin, though is struggling to reach the surface due to the
presence of dry air despite light radar returns. The expectation is
for this feature to track southeastward across the northern Great
Lakes and eventually to the northeastern CONUS through today, with
the bulk of better moisture and forcing remaining out of Iowa.
However, will see winds shift westerly and gradually northwesterly
by late this morning into the afternoon, when a relatively dry cool
front drops across Iowa in response to the passing system. Winds
will turn breezy through the afternoon, with gusts expected for most
areas around 20-30 mph, highest across northern Iowa gusting 35+
mph. Still expecting temperatures today to be on the warmer side in
the upper 40s to low 50s, warmest southwest as the WAA remaining
overhead should hold on into the early afternoon, before the
aforementioned cool front starts to gradually decrease these temps
through the afternoon and thicker cloud cover also increases
overhead. Into the later afternoon to evening, there remains some
indication for precipitation generation in southern Iowa in the form
of sprinkles or a few light rain showers, but the bulk of guidance
shows drier air in the low levels, which keeps chances very minimal
(<20%). After a brief decrease in winds into the evening, the
lagging colder air behind the departing system will sink into Iowa
from stronger cold air advection, increasing winds again around 30-
40mph, highest over northern/eastern Iowa tonight through much of
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will fall overnight tonight into
Wednesday as the cold air overspreads the state, with lows expected
in the upper teens in the north to upper 20s in the south.

Winds are expected to remain breezy through the afternoon, before
decreasing further as surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest
drops into the state. The dry and cooler air will remain overhead
for the rest of the day and into Thursday morning, with highs
expected in the low 20s north and low 30s south. Prime radiational
cooling is expected Wednesday night into Thursday as clear skies and
light winds set up under the high pressure directly overhead,
resulting in expected lows in the upper single digits to mid teens,
warmest southwest. The western thermal ridge will continue to be
cutoff from the Midwest as another trough at the top of this ridge
pivots into the Upper Midwest later Thursday. This deepening wave
and developing low pressure over far southern Canada is indicated
per deterministic guidance to drop a cold front across Iowa Thursday
afternoon to evening following and increase in southwesterly flow
and moisture into the area just ahead of it, bringing the next
chance for precipitation to the area. A closer look at the setup
does feature the best moisture return in north/east Iowa and even
more so into Minnesota/Wisconsin, with temperatures below freezing
indicating snow. In terms of snow amounts, models tend to have
agreement on totals around an inch or less, with higher amounts less
likely (<30%). The most important point is that even little snow
accumulations can lead to slick, hazardous travel so this will be
something to consider for the Thursday evening commute. Will
continue to closely monitor this over the next few days.

Additional chances are in the forecast for snow as wrap around snow
showers are also indicated on the cool side of this system as it
passes down through the Great Lakes Friday and remaining into
Saturday. The extent of additional snowfall accumulations looks to
be more uncertain at this time given some differences in solutions
in evolution/track of the system this far out, so something to
certainly discern over the next several days. Winds are expected to
be quite gusty as well Friday as increasing northwest flow gradually
brings even cooler air into the region, with gusts up to 30-40 mph
expected. Therefore, any snow that falls Friday would be blowing
around which would lead to lower visibilities. Something to
certainly be keeping on eye on through the week for potential
impacts. A chilly weekend is then in store following the push of
cooler air into the region from the north, with lows in the single
digits to teens and highs only in the teens to 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A broad area of stratus over Minnesota will descend southeast
into parts of Iowa late this afternoon and overnight. At this
time, expecting mainly MVFR stratus at KMCW/KALO but there may
be more brief impacts at the other sites as well. The stratus
should begin to scatter Wednesday morning. Breezy west to
southwest wind this afternoon becoming gusty northwest mid to
late this evening with the arrival of a cold front. Gusts over
35 kts may occur. The wind will remain gusty into Wednesday
morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Bury
AVIATION...Donavon